Can the Blue Jays core get them back to the post-season?
Written by Julia Kreuz
The Blue Jays are counting on their familiar core to hold the contention window open.
After an offseason of complementary additions and a spring of offensive adjustments, Toronto will roll out a roster that looks a lot like what we’ve seen in years past -- save for the arrivals of Justin Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodriguez.
This club is banking on the resurgence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Alejandro Kirk to provide support for a pitching staff that was nothing short of brilliant last season. These hitters have the talent, the tools and the motivation to do it, but the American League East isn’t getting any easier. And if the Blue Jays have learned anything over the past two years, it’s that the “just get in” philosophy doesn’t always cut it in October.
Here’s an overview of the team ahead of Opening Day 2024.
Projected Lineup
1. RF George Springer
2. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3. DH Justin Turner
4. SS Bo Bichette
5. LF Daulton Varsho
6. C Alejandro Kirk
7. 2B Cavan Biggio
8. CF Kevin Kiermaier
9. 3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Projected Rotation
RHP Kevin Gausman
RHP José Berríos
RHP Chris Bassitt
LHP Yusei Kikuchi
RHP Alek Manoah
Projected Bullpen
Closer: RHP Jordan Romano
Setup: RHP Erik Swanson, LHP Tim Mayza
Middle: RHP Yimi García, LHP Génesis Cabrera, RHP Chad Green, RHP Trevor Richards
Long: RHP Mitch White
What would make for a successful season?
Any on-paper contender aspires to win the World Series going into a given season, and that's doubtless the case for the 2024 Blue Jays. That said, we'll acknowledge the team's postseason struggles of late and give them a more modest goal -- earn a third-straight playoff berth for just the second time in franchise history and also make a deep run into October. What qualifies as a deep run is subjective, but we'll say make it to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.
This isn't necessarily urgent from the standpoint of the roster, as almost all of the club's core contributors are under contract through at least the 2025 season. That said, if the Jays miss the playoffs or even wash out again in the opening round, then you might see some changes in the dugout and perhaps even the front office. There's achievement in making the postseason while playing in the gauntlet that is the AL East -- most projection systems tab them for a win total in high 80s, which should be enough -- but the Jays need more than "just" a spot in the playoffs to call 2024 a success.
What needs to go right: Hitting and Health
The Blue Jays’ quiet offseason will look a lot more palatable if they get bounce-back campaigns from their top hitters. Spring Training brought progress in that regard, with Guerrero and Kirk showing up for camp in better shape and hitting the ball in the air more often, while Springer is learning to navigate a new phase of his career while staying productive as the leadoff hitter. Which brings us to injuries. The Blue Jays stayed uncannily healthy last season, but this spring already brought a handful of bad news on that front. Ailments to Kevin Gausman, Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson and Alek Manoah will test the pitching depth early, and the club will need to keep a close eye on workloads so as not to overtax the rotation or the bullpen early on.
Bold prediction: Vladdy will hit 40 or more homers
Two years ago, this wouldn’t be anywhere close to a bold prediction. But a lot can change in two years. Most of the projections have Guerrero hitting between 30 and 33 homers in 2024, and that’s justified by his regression since finishing as the runner-up for AL MVP in ‘21. This feels different from what we’ve seen from him recently, though.
Entering “the prime” of his career, as president and CEO Mark Shapiro put it during Spring Training, Vladdy is in great shape, and he’s pulling the ball a lot more consistently than he did last year. A lot of the offseason talk around this team has involved the coaching staff’s ability to digest and relay information and data to hitters in a way that can help them thrive at the plate. That emphasis is about to take effect, and Guerrero is the ultimate test subject.
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Kevin Gausman: 7.0 IP, 9 H, 10 SO, 2 ER
Shane McClanahan: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 SO, 2 ER
Luis Garcia: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 2 SO, 6 ER